#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156.  In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator.  Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet. Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969.  Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern.  He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.  Links:  https://www.mcoscillator.com/ https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc 0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan  0:55 Macro view  1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks  2:45 Recession is coming  4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits  5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks  8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June  10:57 McClellan Oscillator  13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns  15:20 Taxes could be a problem  20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long  25:30 Recession call  27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge 29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy  35:05 Gold  37:00 Bitcoin 38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story  44:00 Parting thoughts