#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets. He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession. He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile. Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/ Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and macro view 03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy 05:01 Inflation expectations 07:26 Yield Curve and recession 10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds 14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity 19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade 20:15 Understanding convexity 25:55 Wrap up