#126 Liz Ann Sonders On The 2024 Market Outlook, A Different Investing Environment, And Why You Can’t Rule Out A Recession

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig. Takeaways * The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction. * The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth. * Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave. * The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected. *Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators. * The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious. * Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis. Links: 2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture 03:55 A Different Environment 05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities 08:52 Active Management in the New Era 10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook 14:07 Interpreting Economic Data 19:03 Yield Curve and Recession 22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market 25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig