#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101. 0:00 Welcome Larry to the show 1:00 Macro picture  2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising 3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation  5:32 Stagflation  9:20 One-year breakevens  10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI 14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market  18:40 Indexing creating a bubble  23:15 Regional bank risks  27:25 Buy into capitulation selling  29:17 Economic picture today  34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade 37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now)  39:34 Zombies  42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value 47:00 Shift to stagflation 50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives