#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession

Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession. Links: https://www.axoniccap.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/ 0:00 Intro 0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp 2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession 4:19 American consumer 5:31 Equity markets 8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing 15:43 Vulnerabilities 18:08 Zombie companies 22:37 Fed outlook 26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation 27:50 Long and variable lags question